It shouldn't come as a shock when I say our offense is much better this year... all you have to do is look at the results:
Scoring offense: 25th nationally (up from 65 spots from 2018)
Total offense: 24th nationally (up 42 spots from 2018)
But what I wanted to do is dig into the why. Most of us can probably describe it anecdotally (another year of experience, better OL, etc) but I wanted to dig into a few key numbers that quantitatively describe exactly why we've gone from an average offense with potential to one of the best offenses in the nation.
1. Offensive Line Improvement
This is actually encompassing of several stats but the more I looked at it, the more I think this unit is responsible for a huge portion of our success this year. On the surface, you see huge jumps in rushing offense (84th last year to 39th this year), yards per carry (98th to 12th), and sacks allowed (129th to 28th) but some of the stats from Football Outsiders show even more improvement:
Line Yards (which is yardage credited to the OL): 119th in 2018 --> 12th in 2019
Stuff Rate (% of plays stopped at or behind the LOS): 115th in 2018 --> 38th in 2019
Sack Rate (% of plays sacked): 122nd in 2018 --> 48th in 2019
You can sort through their rankings back to 2014 and see that numbers wise this is by far the best OL we've had the last 6 seasons. If the numbers went back further I'm guessing it would be our best since 2008 or even longer. The great performance so far probably explains a lot of the improvement below:
2. Third Down Percentage
(2018: 98th nationally --> 2019: 6th nationally)
We had flashes of brilliance last year (usually when we were down 3 scores already) but for the most part struggled on third down... which was especially weird because we were great on 4th down in 2018. No longer is that the case; OSU is picking up 53.8% of their third down conversions to go along with 70% of our 4th downs (26th nationally). Longer drives lead to more scoring opportunities which brings us to...
3. Red Zone Scoring
(2018: 105th nationally --> 2019: 29th nationally)
This was one of the biggest opportunities for improvement last year when piled up a lot of yards but didn't come away with as many points as you'd expect. Being bad on third down and having a terrible kicker cost us probably 3-4 points per game just in the red zone. This year, despite still having a bad kicker, we are in the top 30 nationally in red zone scoring and leading the Pac-12 in Red Zone TD percentage (17/21 redzone trips have resulted in a TD). So not only are we on pace to have *way* more red zone opportunities this year, we are converting those opportunities into 6 points at a very high rate.
4. Passing Efficiency
(2018: 86th nationally --> 2019: 31st nationally)
The UCLA game did wonders for this number but it was already a decent improvement before that game. There has been much handwringing about Jake on this board but the fact is through 5 games he's having one of the best seasons an OSU QB has ever had. His current rating of 158.5 is the highest I could find going back to 2000 for an OSU quarterback. That number is sure to go down slightly as he plays tougher competition but 14-0 TD-INT is something pretty rare.
5. Kick Returns
(2018: 76th nationally --> 2019: 24th nationally)
The 76th nationally last year was in large part due to 3-4 long returns but I think it's safe to say we were pretty bad with our kick return decisions last year. This year we've been much better and more consistent in our decision making. I found a site earlier this year that said our average starting field position was 124th nationally in 2018 -- it hasn't updated it for 2019 yet but I think it's safe to say we are at least 30-50 spots better this year due to better decisions and a defense that has at least forced a few more punts than it did in 2018.
....so what does all this mean? Well, it's probably too early to tell. We've played three defenses ranked outside the top 100 and an FCS school. Moving foward, ESPN's FPI has our remaining schedule at 7th toughest in the nation so things aren't getting any easier. But I will say that clearly we have an offensive coaching staff who knows what their doing and they have been empowered by a really good offensive line and a QB who hasn't made a lot of mistakes. If those two things hold up, we will continue to score a lot of points this season.
Scoring offense: 25th nationally (up from 65 spots from 2018)
Total offense: 24th nationally (up 42 spots from 2018)
But what I wanted to do is dig into the why. Most of us can probably describe it anecdotally (another year of experience, better OL, etc) but I wanted to dig into a few key numbers that quantitatively describe exactly why we've gone from an average offense with potential to one of the best offenses in the nation.
1. Offensive Line Improvement
This is actually encompassing of several stats but the more I looked at it, the more I think this unit is responsible for a huge portion of our success this year. On the surface, you see huge jumps in rushing offense (84th last year to 39th this year), yards per carry (98th to 12th), and sacks allowed (129th to 28th) but some of the stats from Football Outsiders show even more improvement:
Line Yards (which is yardage credited to the OL): 119th in 2018 --> 12th in 2019
Stuff Rate (% of plays stopped at or behind the LOS): 115th in 2018 --> 38th in 2019
Sack Rate (% of plays sacked): 122nd in 2018 --> 48th in 2019
You can sort through their rankings back to 2014 and see that numbers wise this is by far the best OL we've had the last 6 seasons. If the numbers went back further I'm guessing it would be our best since 2008 or even longer. The great performance so far probably explains a lot of the improvement below:
2. Third Down Percentage
(2018: 98th nationally --> 2019: 6th nationally)
We had flashes of brilliance last year (usually when we were down 3 scores already) but for the most part struggled on third down... which was especially weird because we were great on 4th down in 2018. No longer is that the case; OSU is picking up 53.8% of their third down conversions to go along with 70% of our 4th downs (26th nationally). Longer drives lead to more scoring opportunities which brings us to...
3. Red Zone Scoring
(2018: 105th nationally --> 2019: 29th nationally)
This was one of the biggest opportunities for improvement last year when piled up a lot of yards but didn't come away with as many points as you'd expect. Being bad on third down and having a terrible kicker cost us probably 3-4 points per game just in the red zone. This year, despite still having a bad kicker, we are in the top 30 nationally in red zone scoring and leading the Pac-12 in Red Zone TD percentage (17/21 redzone trips have resulted in a TD). So not only are we on pace to have *way* more red zone opportunities this year, we are converting those opportunities into 6 points at a very high rate.
4. Passing Efficiency
(2018: 86th nationally --> 2019: 31st nationally)
The UCLA game did wonders for this number but it was already a decent improvement before that game. There has been much handwringing about Jake on this board but the fact is through 5 games he's having one of the best seasons an OSU QB has ever had. His current rating of 158.5 is the highest I could find going back to 2000 for an OSU quarterback. That number is sure to go down slightly as he plays tougher competition but 14-0 TD-INT is something pretty rare.
5. Kick Returns
(2018: 76th nationally --> 2019: 24th nationally)
The 76th nationally last year was in large part due to 3-4 long returns but I think it's safe to say we were pretty bad with our kick return decisions last year. This year we've been much better and more consistent in our decision making. I found a site earlier this year that said our average starting field position was 124th nationally in 2018 -- it hasn't updated it for 2019 yet but I think it's safe to say we are at least 30-50 spots better this year due to better decisions and a defense that has at least forced a few more punts than it did in 2018.
....so what does all this mean? Well, it's probably too early to tell. We've played three defenses ranked outside the top 100 and an FCS school. Moving foward, ESPN's FPI has our remaining schedule at 7th toughest in the nation so things aren't getting any easier. But I will say that clearly we have an offensive coaching staff who knows what their doing and they have been empowered by a really good offensive line and a QB who hasn't made a lot of mistakes. If those two things hold up, we will continue to score a lot of points this season.
