This is my look at the OSU mens schedule, asking the question "What do we have to do to make the tournament?" It is NOT a prediction, it is a look at what I think they would have to do to be dancing in March...
Non-Conference:
The Beavs have a solid non-conference schedule, highlighted by a Far West Classic matchup with Texas A&M (a tourney probable and dark-horse pick to win the SEC), and two tough road games against a talented Long Beach State team and a St. Louis Billikens squad picked to win the A-10. A three-game slate in the Paradise Jam tournament begins with a crucial matchup with an Old Dominion team that notched 25 wins last year and should have made the field of 68. If the Beavs can pull that one off, a match-up with probable NCAA team Missouri looms in the second round. If they can come away with two wins from the Paradise Jam (W-W-L, or W-L-W), their NCAA chances would look much better.
My Opinion: If OSU can enter conference play with a 9-3 record, they will have a fighting chance for a bid. Given the strength of the conference and the unbalanced schedule working against them (more on this below) I think we can only afford 3 losses entering conference play… and two losses would be even better!
Conference:
All Pac-12 teams play 18 league games, but not every 18-game schedule is equal, and this is the year OSU gets screwed. OSU will play every team twice except for Utah/Colorado (away), and Cal/Stanford (home). All of those teams are picked to be in the bottom half of the conference, and we only get to play them once… meaning that of the Beav’s 18 conference games, 66% (12) will be against the top 6 teams, while just 33%( 6) will be against teams picked in the bottom half. Needless to say, the schedule makers couldn’t have made it harder for OSU.
My opinion: If OSU can go 7-2 at home and 4-5 on the road, an 11-7 mark would be good for 20 wins going into the Pac-12 tourney. That is a hard route, and includes winning at home several times against teams like UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, etc. plus knocking off a few mid-level teams on the road like Stanford, Colorado, and Utah. However, at NCAA selection Sunday is where the harsh conference schedule could actually pay dividends, as OSU’s statistical ranking and SOS should be very high which always helps bubble teams. Win 11 in conference, win that first Pac-12 game against the lower seed, and the Beavers are 21-9 and dancing!
I’m not saying the above will happen, I’m saying this (or something close) is what a realistic route to the tourney looks like for this team. Can they do it? We will see…
Non-Conference:
The Beavs have a solid non-conference schedule, highlighted by a Far West Classic matchup with Texas A&M (a tourney probable and dark-horse pick to win the SEC), and two tough road games against a talented Long Beach State team and a St. Louis Billikens squad picked to win the A-10. A three-game slate in the Paradise Jam tournament begins with a crucial matchup with an Old Dominion team that notched 25 wins last year and should have made the field of 68. If the Beavs can pull that one off, a match-up with probable NCAA team Missouri looms in the second round. If they can come away with two wins from the Paradise Jam (W-W-L, or W-L-W), their NCAA chances would look much better.
My Opinion: If OSU can enter conference play with a 9-3 record, they will have a fighting chance for a bid. Given the strength of the conference and the unbalanced schedule working against them (more on this below) I think we can only afford 3 losses entering conference play… and two losses would be even better!
Conference:
All Pac-12 teams play 18 league games, but not every 18-game schedule is equal, and this is the year OSU gets screwed. OSU will play every team twice except for Utah/Colorado (away), and Cal/Stanford (home). All of those teams are picked to be in the bottom half of the conference, and we only get to play them once… meaning that of the Beav’s 18 conference games, 66% (12) will be against the top 6 teams, while just 33%( 6) will be against teams picked in the bottom half. Needless to say, the schedule makers couldn’t have made it harder for OSU.
My opinion: If OSU can go 7-2 at home and 4-5 on the road, an 11-7 mark would be good for 20 wins going into the Pac-12 tourney. That is a hard route, and includes winning at home several times against teams like UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, etc. plus knocking off a few mid-level teams on the road like Stanford, Colorado, and Utah. However, at NCAA selection Sunday is where the harsh conference schedule could actually pay dividends, as OSU’s statistical ranking and SOS should be very high which always helps bubble teams. Win 11 in conference, win that first Pac-12 game against the lower seed, and the Beavers are 21-9 and dancing!
I’m not saying the above will happen, I’m saying this (or something close) is what a realistic route to the tourney looks like for this team. Can they do it? We will see…
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