I did a fun little exercise to predict final PAC-12 finish based on stats from games played to date. To be totally taken with a grain of salt (either a very large grain of salt or, at the least, several grains of salt).
Ran some very simple statistics based on team batting averages, team pitching ERAS, and team Fielding percentages for all games played to date. I then applied Iterative Strength ratings amongst the 11 PAC-12 teams now that we are about one third of the way through the season.
My very simplified calculated order of PAC-12 finish:
1) Cal
2) UCLA
3) OSU in a very close race with USC for third
4) USC
5) ASU
6) Arizona
7) Oregon
8) Washington
9) Stanford
10) WSU
11) Utah just nudges past Colorado for 11th since Colorado does not field a baseball team.
In my very simplistic approach, I considered Batting, Pitching and Fielding equally important. Determined a ratio for each team in relation the PAC-12 average. Added the ratios for each team then applied an iterative strength of schedule ratio factor also based on PAC-12 iterative strength average.
Example:
Batting Average Ratio Factor :
- OSU batting average all games is .305
- PAC-12 average batting percentage for all games is .271
- OSU's batting average ratio against the other PAC-12
teams would be .305/.271 = 1.093189964
Pitching Average Ratio Factor is calculated the same way with regard to ERA's of the PAC-12 teams all games played.
Fielding Average Ration Factor is calculated the same way with regard to fielding percentage for the PAC-12 teams all games played.
I also similarly determined the Iterative Strength Factor of PAC-12 team for all games played similarly based on Boyd's World iterative strength rating.
Final calculations by team were: (Batting Ratio factor + Pitching Ratio factor + Fielding ratio factor) * iterative strength ratio factor.
Fun little exercise with no accounting for other factors like matchups, player development (+ or -) based on youth of teams, injuries, etc.. Also, assumed that Batting/Pitching/Fielding are equal factors which they probably are not.
Again, just for fun. In other words, don't bet the house (including the dog house).
NOTE: I put this on the pure-orange site yesterday. Lucky pointed out that I could have used the Fortune Cookie factor as well. Edited for better readability.
This post was edited on 3/25 7:03 AM by mosu
Ran some very simple statistics based on team batting averages, team pitching ERAS, and team Fielding percentages for all games played to date. I then applied Iterative Strength ratings amongst the 11 PAC-12 teams now that we are about one third of the way through the season.
My very simplified calculated order of PAC-12 finish:
1) Cal
2) UCLA
3) OSU in a very close race with USC for third
4) USC
5) ASU
6) Arizona
7) Oregon
8) Washington
9) Stanford
10) WSU
11) Utah just nudges past Colorado for 11th since Colorado does not field a baseball team.
In my very simplistic approach, I considered Batting, Pitching and Fielding equally important. Determined a ratio for each team in relation the PAC-12 average. Added the ratios for each team then applied an iterative strength of schedule ratio factor also based on PAC-12 iterative strength average.
Example:
Batting Average Ratio Factor :
- OSU batting average all games is .305
- PAC-12 average batting percentage for all games is .271
- OSU's batting average ratio against the other PAC-12
teams would be .305/.271 = 1.093189964
Pitching Average Ratio Factor is calculated the same way with regard to ERA's of the PAC-12 teams all games played.
Fielding Average Ration Factor is calculated the same way with regard to fielding percentage for the PAC-12 teams all games played.
I also similarly determined the Iterative Strength Factor of PAC-12 team for all games played similarly based on Boyd's World iterative strength rating.
Final calculations by team were: (Batting Ratio factor + Pitching Ratio factor + Fielding ratio factor) * iterative strength ratio factor.
Fun little exercise with no accounting for other factors like matchups, player development (+ or -) based on youth of teams, injuries, etc.. Also, assumed that Batting/Pitching/Fielding are equal factors which they probably are not.
Again, just for fun. In other words, don't bet the house (including the dog house).
NOTE: I put this on the pure-orange site yesterday. Lucky pointed out that I could have used the Fortune Cookie factor as well. Edited for better readability.
This post was edited on 3/25 7:03 AM by mosu
